A real cold front is heading to Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

H. Michael Mogil December 6, 2016December 11, 2016

South Florida experiences “cool front” passages fairly often during the chillier months of the year. These bring wind shifts (winds northerly and northwesterly, quickly turning to northeasterly), and a modest drop in temperatures and a more significant drop in dew point temperatures. In summer months, very weak “cool fronts” occasionally reach as far south as places like Tampa and Orlando, and even less frequently to Naples and Fort Lauderdale.

Now, a bona fide arctic cold front is enroute to the sunshine state and should pass by the Naples area on Thursday evening and be fully in control by Saturday (Fig. 1). No, arctic temperatures won’t reach this far south, but the temperature drop will be substantial. From daytime highs in the low to mid 80’s, temperatures in the Naples-Fort Myers area will tumble into the upper 60’s to near 70 by Friday. Overnight lows, which have remained in the uber-humid low to mid 70’s, will dip into the upper 40’s inland and lower 50’s in coastal population centers. This means that the Naples area will transition from temperatures that have been running about 6 degrees warmer than average so far this month to some 10 degrees colder than average by Friday and Friday night. That’s a 16-degree swing! For this time of year, the average high and low temperatures in Naples are 78 and 58, respectively.

Gusty winds will make the chill feel worse than it really is.

Although rain chances for the next several days are only 20 to 30 percent, once the initial non-arctic front passes through the Naples area by tonight, cloudy skies will rule until the arctic front sweeps things clear by Saturday.

Then, as quickly as it came, the cold air will be replaced by moderating temperatures and humidity as winds swing to the northeast by Saturday.

Keep looking to the northwest, though. Given the evolving upper level flow pattern, a string of Pacific weather systems, and periodic southward pushes of the polar vortex, additional cold air outbursts may be heading our way soon. Regardless of how the temperature evolves, dry weather should dominate for the next several weeks.

Originally posted 12/6/16

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