A Stormy Weather Day for Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)
Earlier this week, a welcome cold front passed through southwest Florida. Daytime highs and nighttime lows tumbled a bit, while dew points (the measure of atmospheric humidity) fell into the comfortable 60’s. As with most of our early cooler season fronts, the relief from oppressive humidity readings was short-lived. Early this morning (Oct. 28, 2021), the humidity was back. Mid-70 dew points already covered the southern part of the peninsula (south of a Tampa to Fort Lauderdale line).
A strong front is heading our way. It’s already passed through much of the northern Gulf region and was entering the Florida Panhandle at sunrise. Ahead of that front, winds from the south and southwest will be increasing across the peninsula and offshore Gulf waters. Small craft advisories and various beach wave and rip current advisories have been posted (Fig. 1). Further north and further out into the Gulf, gale warnings are in play.
By early this afternoon, the front will be close enough to southwest Florida for a pre-frontal squall-line (line of thunderstorms with strong and gusty winds) to affect the area. Given the high dew points, strong winds (near the ground and at higher altitudes), and sea breeze/Okeechobee 
lake breeze interactions, some of the storms could become strong to severe, with a few storms possibly spawning waterspouts or tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entire Florida peninsula in a marginal to slight severe weather risk zone (Fig. 2).
Due to the high dew points, it is also possible for some of the storms to be heavy rainfall producers. Be aware that there might be some ponding of water on roadways during heavier storms. Please drive carefully should you encounter standing or moving water on roadways.
Once the front clears our area this evening and overnight, the weather won’t immediately improve. That’s because the storm system bringing us today’s weather will still be hovering 
over the southern and central Appalachians, with a circulation covering the entire eastern half of the U.S. (Fig. 3). This will force the expected cooler and drier air to cross the warmer Gulf waters. There, much like Great Lakes’ snow bands of winter, the air will be modified from below, gain heat and moisture, and allow for clouds and rain showers to develop. Friday (and even into Saturday), skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with passing showers. It will also be breezy (15 to 25 mile per hour winds) to windy (20 to 30 mile per hour winds), especially during the daytime (see National Weather Service glossary – https://w1.weather.gov/glossary/). Conditions will improve by Sunday. For the next few days, daytime high temperatures will be hard-pressed to rise much above the lower 80’s; overnight lows won’t fall into the 60’s until Sunday morning when the wind pattern will relax and winds will turn to a more northerly direction.
© 2021 H. Michael Mogil
Originally posted 10/28/21
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