Arctic Air Arrives (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)
Apologies to my readers. In my haste to publish this pre-Christmas, I inadvertently omitted the all-important figures. They’ve now been included (1/2/18).
It’s time to kiss the autumnal warmth of the past few weeks across the Central U.S. goodbye, as arctic air arrives in the U.S. with a vengeance. For example, Minneapolis, MN has averaged 5.4 degrees above average through the 22nd of the month, with at least 6 days in double-digit warmth. That is slated for replacement with temperatures some fifteen to twenty degrees below average, including a forecast average of ZERO on Christmas Day.
Tulsa, OK offers similar testimony. After averaging some 6.7 degrees above average through the 23rd of this month (with 9 days in double-digit warmth), look for readings to tumble to some 5 degrees below average this coming week. After New Year’s, an even colder air mass could invade the Central U.S and even the southern Plains.
This transition is linked to a change in the upper level wind pattern from “zonal” (more west to east) flow to “high amplitude” (north and south) wind currents (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). Notice, in Fig. 2, the formation of a “polar vortex” over Hudson Bay and a wind flow source region from north of the Arctic Circle.
© 2017 H. Michael Mogil
Originally posted 12/24/17; updated 1/2/18 (added omitted figures)
* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.
Tags:
3.14,
99L,
AC,
AccuWeather,
ACE,
ACT,
advisory,
Africa,
agriculture,
Air Force,
air mass,
air quality,
aircraft,
airline,
airport,
Alabama,
Alaska,
algal bloom,
altitude,
altocumulus,
answer,
Antarctica,
anti-crepuscular rays,
app,
Apple,
application,
arctic,
Arizona,
Arkansas,
ASD,
ashcloud,
Atlanta,
Atlantic,
Atlantic Ocean,
autism,
autumn,
average,
aviation,
awareness,
Bachmann,
Bahamas,
balloon,
Barra,
beach,
beacherosion,
Bermuda,
BF,
Big Bend,
bing,
biology,
biomes,
birds,
Black Friday,
blizzard,
blocking,
bomb,
Bonita Springs,
Boston,
Bow,
bow echo,
brain,
Broward,
Buffalo,
Business,
California,
calorie,
Canada,
Candy Crush,
canyon,
Cape Cod,
Cape Verde,
CapitalOne,
car,
Caribbean,
Carolinas,
Carson,
cash back,
CAT 1,
CAT 5,
CategoryFive,
CategoryOne,
Central Plains,
Central U.S.,
Charlotte,
check,
checking,
Chicago,
chill,
chilly,
Christmas,
Christmas Star,
circles,
cirrus,
climate,
climate change,
climate zones,
climatology,
cloud,
clouds,
Coast,
coastal flooding,
COCORAHS,
cold,
cold front,
college testing,
Collier,
Collier County,
color-blindness,
Colorado,
Common Core,
communication,
computer,
conjunction,
contractor,
convection,
converge,
convergence,
cool,
cooling degree days,
Coronavirus,
coverage,
covid-19,
covid19,
credit,
creditcards,
crepuscular,
crepuscular rays,
crime,
Cristobal,
critic,
CS/HB 7069,
cumulonimbus,
cumulus,
current,
Customer,
customer service,
cyclone,
Dakotas,
Darby,
data,
date,
debate,
deep south,
degree days,
Denver,
deposition,
Des Moines,
desert,
dew,
Dew point,
dewpoint,
diameter,
donut,
Doppler radar,
Dorian,
Dothan,
downburst,
downdraft,
downslope,
drought,
Dry,
dry line,
Drying,
Dunkin’ Donuts,
dust,
e-mail,
Earth,
east,
east coast,
Eastern Pacific,
Eastern Pacific Ocean,
eastern US,
eddy,
Education,
Emily,
England,
enhanced imagery,
entrepreneur,
equation,
erosion,
Eta,
Europe,
evacuation,
evaporate,
evaporative,
eye,
eye wall,
fall streaks,
family,
fat,
Federal,
filters,
fire,
fire weather,
fires,
first responders,
fish,
FL,
flash flood,
flash flooding,
flood,
flooding,
Florida,
FLWX,
focal point,
fog,
folder,
folklore,
forest fires,
Fort Myers,
freeze,
freezing rain,
frequent flyer,
front,
Frost,
Ft. Myers,
funnel,
funnel cloud,
gale,
gale warnings,
gales,
game,
garden,
garden hose,
Gaston,
gauge,
George Clooney,
Georgia,
geostationary,
GLM,
global warming,
GM,
gmail,
GOES,
GOES-16,
GOES-R,
GOESR,
google,
Gore,
government,
gradient,
Great Lakes,
Great Salt Lake,
Greenhouse gas,
ground fog,
Groundhog,
grushfire,
Guadalupe Mountains,
Guadalupe Peak,
Gulf Coast,
Gulf of Mexico,
gust,
gusts,
hail,
hair,
Haiti,
Harvey,
Hawaii,
Hawking,
health,
heat,
heating degree days,
heavy rain,
heavy rainfall,
heavy snow,
hemisphere,
Hendry,
Hermine,
High,
High Plains,
high surf,
high temperature,
high wind warnings,
high-pressure,
home,
homework,
Honolulu,
hose,
Houston,
humid,
humidity,
hurricane,
hurricane hunter aircraft,
Hurricane Matthew,
hurricanes,
I75,
Ian,
ice,
ice cap,
ice storm,
Illinois,
image,
images,
inch,
India,
Indiana,
Indianapolis,
infrared,
instability,
Insurance,
Intermountain,
IOS,
IOS 7,
Iowa,
iphone,
IR,
Ireland,
Irma,
IRS,
isothermal layer,
Jamaica,
Japan,
jet stream,
Jupiter,
Kansas,
Karen,
kitchen,
koppen,
Krispy Kreme,
lake,
lake effect,
Lake Erie,
Lake Ontario,
Lake Tahoe,
lake-effect snow,
latitude,
law,
LD,
learn,
learning,
Lee,
Lee County,
life,
lift,
Lightning,
lightning detection,
logic,
Long Island,
longshore current,
Louisiana,
low,
low temperature,
low-pressure,
low-pressure system,
low-pressure systems,
lows,
luggage,
Macy's,
mail,
Maine,
mall,
Marco Island,
Mars,
Maryland,
Massachusetts,
math,
Mathworks,
Matthew,
Maui,
MCC,
MCS,
media,
Memorial Day,
mentor,
mentoring,
meso-cyclone,
mesocyclone,
mesoscale,
Mesoscale Convective System,
meteorological bomb,
meteorologist,
meteorology,
Mexico,
Miami,
Michigan,
microns,
mid-atlantic,
Midwest,
military,
Minneapolis,
Minnesota,
Mississippi,
Mississippi River valley,
Mississippi Valley,
misture,
mixing,
models,
moisture,
monsoon,
Montague,
Montana,
moods,
moon,
mountain,
mountains,
movie,
Naples,
NASA,
Nate,
National Climatic Data Center,
National Hurricane Center,
natural world,
nature,
Nebraska,
Nevada,
New England,
New Jersey,
New Mexico,
New York,
news,
Newton,
NHC,
NOAA,
nor’easter,
North Carolina,
Northeast,
northern,
northern hemisphere,
Northern Plains,
number,
numbers,
NWS,
Oahu,
Obamacare,
observation,
observations,
observe,
observer,
Ohio,
Ohio Valley,
Okeechobee,
Oklahoma,
omega,
omega block,
omega high,
online,
Ophelia,
order,
organize,
organizing,
OS,
outbreak,
outflow,
outflow boundaries,
outflow boundary,
outlook,
Pacific Northwest,
Palm Beach,
Panhandle,
paper,
parade,
parent,
pattern,
patterns,
Pavlof,
pedometer,
Pennsylvania,
Philadelphia,
photographs,
photography,
Pi,
PiDay,
Plains,
polar,
polar vortex,
political,
ponding,
precipitable water,
precipitation,
preparedness,
pressure,
pressure gradient,
primary,
problem,
Puerto Rico,
Punxsutawney Phil,
question,
radar,
radiosonde,
radius,
rain,
Rain shadow,
rainbow,
rainbows,
raindrop,
raindrops,
rainfall,
rainshadow,
rainy,
record,
records,
Red Flag Warnings,
red tide,
responsibility,
review,
reward,
rewards,
Rhode Island,
ridge,
ridges,
rip current,
ripple,
risk,
Rockies,
Rocky Mountains,
RSW Airport,
Russia,
safety,
Saffir-Simpson,
San Diego,
San Francisco,
Sandy,
Santa Ana,
SAT,
satellite,
Saturn,
scandal,
school,
science,
Scotland,
SDO,
sea breeze,
sea surface temperature,
seabreeze,
seas,
Season,
seasonal,
seasons,
service,
severe,
severe thunderstorms,
severe weather,
shadow,
Shinseki,
shower,
showers,
shutdown,
Sidewalk,
Sierra Nevada,
Sky,
sky awareness,
sky awareness week,
sky optics,
sky watching,
sleet,
small craft advisory,
smoke,
snow,
snow removal,
snowfall,
Snowstorm,
social,
sounding,
south,
South Carolina,
South Dakota,
Southeast,
Southeast U.S.,
southern Plains,
southwest,
southwest Florida,
space,
space weather,
Spaghetti plot,
SPC,
spiders,
spiral bands,
spirals,
spotters,
spring,
St. Cloud,
Starbucks,
statistics,
Steps,
StevenHawking,
stock,
storm,
storm damage,
storm surge,
storm warnings,
storms,
Stormsurge,
STRIIV,
structural current,
student,
students,
study,
sub-freezing,
sublimation,
subsidence,
summer,
summer camp,
summer camps,
sun,
sun dog,
sunset,
sunspot,
Super Tuesday,
supercells,
supercomputer,
surge,
SW Florida,
Swells,
Tampa,
technology,
teen,
temperature,
Tennessee,
Tennessee River Valley,
Tennessee Valley,
test,
test-taking,
tests,
Texas,
thanksgiving,
The Perfect Storm,
The Weather Channel,
think,
thinking,
thundersnow,
thunderstorm,
thunderstorms,
tides,
time,
tornado,
tornado warnings,
tornado watches,
tornadoes,
train,
training,
transportation,
travel,
tropic,
tropical,
tropical cyclone,
tropical storm,
tropical storms,
tropical wave,
tropical weather,
tropicalstorm,
tropics,
troughs,
Tug Hill Plateau,
tutoring,
twas,
TWC,
twilight,
typhoon,
U.K.,
U.S.,
UK,
unenhanced imagery,
updraft,
Upper level,
upper low,
Upper winds,
upper-level winds,
US,
Utah,
vacation,
vegetation,
Venus,
veteran,
virga,
Virginia,
virtual,
virus,
visibility,
visible,
vocabulary,
volcano,
vortex,
voting,
Waikiki,
walk,
warm,
warmth,
warning,
warnings,
warranty,
Washington DC,
watch,
watches,
water,
water cycle,
water vapor,
waterspout,
Watertown,
wave,
waves,
weather,
weather camp,
WeatherNation,
west,
West Coast,
West Virginia,
Wet-bulb effect,
wildfire,
wind,
wind chill,
wind shear,
winds,
windy,
winter,
winter storm,
Wipha,
Wisconsin,
word,
work,
WRN,
WV,
Wyoming,
Yucatan Peninsula,