Extremely dangerous Nicole aims for Bermuda (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

H. Michael Mogil October 13, 2016

Given her size and strength, Category 4 (EXTREMELY DANGEROUS) Hurricane Nicole is likely to bring major impacts to Bermuda today (Oct. 13, 2016). As of 5:00 a.m. Atlantic Standard Time (A.S.T.) or 5:00 a.m. E.D.T., Nicole was located about 100 miles to the southwest of the tiny island Nation of Bermuda and was moving to the north-northeast at 15 miles per hour. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Nicole is expected to be at major hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda later today. It is easy to see how close Nicole is to Bermuda in this enhanced overnight infrared GOES satellite image (Fig. 1).

NHC’s early morning advisory notes that Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. With the storm already so close to Bermuda, it is no surprise that Bermuda International Airport (KTXF) has recently reported sustained winds of 43 miles per hour with a gust to 62 miles per hour.

The last Category 3 storm to strike Bermuda was Fabian on Sept. 5, 2003 (with sustained winds of 120 miles per hour and gusts to 164 miles per hour). Prior to Fabian, the most destructive storm to strike the island was back in 1926 (prior to the start of storm naming).

In addition to hurricane force winds, NHC forecasters are concerned about the following hazards for Bermuda:

a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches through this evening.
swells associated with Nicole will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda.

Swells will also spread to the U.S. East Coast during the next few days, creating similar coastal risks of dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Some beach erosion is also possible. With a full moon slated for Oct. 16, 2016, tides will be higher than at other times during the month. This could add to coastal flooding risks.

Originally posted 10/13/16

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