Heavy showers and thunderstorms for SW Florida UFN… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)
On Sunday, both counties reported peak rainfall of more than three-fourths of an inch (although most locations reported much lower amounts); yesterday, rainfall in Lee County was heavy enough to prompt the issuance of a flood warning for parts of the county. There was also at least one report of 1.50 inches of precipitation. Rainfall maps for both days are shown in Figures 2 and 3.
The forecast for the rest of the week keeps the pattern in place with daytime and evening thunderstorm probabilities, each day, at 60 percent to 70 percent. With light winds aloft and a general east to west wind pattern near the ground, thunderstorms will develop, move slowly, and then congregate along and west of I75 from late afternoon into early evening. Because “precipitable water” values (the amount of water vapor through a vertical atmospheric column) are in the top ten percent of values observed in early September, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.
© 2020 H. Michael Mogil
Originally posted 9/7/20