Matthew – a significant threat to the U.S. East Coast… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

H. Michael Mogil October 4, 2016October 4, 2016

This morning, while Matthew continues to pummel parts of the western Caribbean with high winds, high waves, heavy rainfall, mudslides and more, forecasters are becoming increasingly concerned about Matthew’s future. Matthew now poses a significant risk to much of the U.S. East Coast. Governors in several states have already declared states of emergency, allowing them mobilize resources more easily, should Matthew’s threat materialize.

As computer models continue to show a more westward pathway for Matthew, satellite imagery and derived (satellite-based) upper level winds support the trend (Fig. 1). The upper level ridge to the north of Matthew was supposed to weaken and allow Matthew to move northward far enough offshore for the U.S. East Coast. Instead, the ridge has built westward and maintained its strength.

As a result, all eyes are now focused on potential storm impacts from Florida northward to New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces. Even if Matthew stays offshore, high waves, a persistent fetch of waters onshore, strong and gusty winds, and some areas of very heavy rainfall are likely. If landfall occurs, impacts could be far greater, especially in and near the landfall area.

Even the west coast of Florida isn’t immune from Matthew’s potential wrath. In addition to the risk of some heavy rainfall and gusty winds on land, gusty onshore winds on the west side of the storm could lead to high waves, beach erosion and some coastal flooding.

Right now, based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, it appears that parts of New England stand the greatest threat for a direct hit from Matthew. The GFS takes a re-strengthening storm directly onshore in Maine this coming weekend.

As always, note that forecast position errors grow with time. Errors are around 175 miles at day 4 (96 hour forecast) and 230 miles at day 5 (120 hours forecast).

Stay tuned to your local and national news media outlets and weather reports for the latest details concerning storm positioning, potential impacts and emergency notifications. Visit the Global Weather and Climate Center, too. Our correspondents will be posting the latest information and explanations about the storm and about hurricanes, in general. We’ll also be providing information details that may not appear in other media outlets (e.g., like the satellite-derived winds noted here)

Originally posted 10/4/16

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