Powerful Matthew Takes Aim on Jamaica… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

H. Michael Mogil October 1, 2016October 2, 2016

Overnight, hurricane hunter aircraft and satellite imagery intensity estimates placed Hurricane Matthew in a Category 5 status. A category 5 hurricane is one with sustained winds of 157 miles per hour (137 knots) or more. At 8:00 a.m. E.D.T., on Oct. 1, 2016, Matthew’s winds were estimated to be just below Category 5 strength.

Matthew is now tracking due westward at about 7 miles per hour and is expected to take a turn toward the northwest later today and tonight and then a turn to the north during the next few days (Fig. 1). However, the storm’s slow movement is expected to continue. This makes forward speed a key factor in the storm’s forecast and expected impacts. Viewing the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track and “cone of uncertainty” (the cone that encompasses about two-thirds of the forecast error at different forecast times), Matthew could be spreading storm force winds across Jamaica for almost a full day (with many hours of very strong hurricane force winds). A similar scenario could play out across eastern Cuba. Obviously, beach erosion (associated with strong wind and wave action) will become a significant coastal impact for both islands.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Jamaica and a tropical watch covers parts of southwest Haiti as of early on Oct. 1, 2016.

Heavy rainfall is also a risk, in part due to slow movement and the effect of terrain across these islands. Winds blowing up mountain slopes favor increased rainfall. Narrow valleys allow for channeling of runoff, possible leading to localized flash flooding and mudslides. On the other hand, mountains will act to disrupt the storm structure and weaken the storm. Hence, the forecast calls for Matthew to drop below “major” hurricane status (category 3 or 111 mile per hour winds) by late on Tues., Oct. 4, 2016 (after crossing eastern Cuba).

Storm track is also a consideration because the storm is expected to pass through the Bahamas, close enough to southeast Florida to cause concern. As of early on Oct. 1, the trend toward taking the storm closer to the U.S. mainland persists. However, Canadian and European numerical models have a different solution set, one that places the storm further to the east.

As is always the case, additional data from the latest hurricane hunter aircraft and morning upper level wind observations from U.S. and Caribbean locations will be used in the next round of computer model runs.

It is important to recognize that the average NHC forecast eye position forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 (96 hour forecast) and 230 miles at day 5 (120 hours forecast). Hence, NHC notes that it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts in Florida from Matthew.

Here are the official forecast positions from NHC as of 8:00 a.m. E.D.T. on Oct. 1, 2016. Fig. 1 shows these and the error cone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT

01/0900Z 13.3N 72.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H

01/1800Z 13.3N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H

02/0600Z 13.8N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H

02/1800Z 14.9N 75.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H

03/0600Z 16.2N 75.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H

04/0600Z 19.5N 76.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H

05/0600Z 23.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H

Originally posted 10/1/16

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