Scheduling the arrival of Matthew’s winds (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

H. Michael Mogil October 6, 2016October 6, 2016

National Weather Service (NWS) offices from Florida northward to the Carolinas have been publishing numerous “local action statements” and other information about Category 4 (Major Hurricane) Matthew (Fig. 1). Included are probabilities of various weather hazards, flooding maps, storm track maps and much more. Local media outlets, reliable weather bloggers, private sector weather providers and others are sharing this information. So, too, are we here at the Global Weather and Climate Center. Our bloggers / weather correspondents will also be trying to add the scientific underpinnings for some of the information.

A short while ago, the NWS Miami office provided it’s latest thinking on the timing of the onset of hurricane and tropical storm force winds across south Florida. Rob Molleda, the Warnings Coordination Meteorologist for the office, emphasized that, “these are on the earlier side and are for SUSTAINED (at least 1 minute in duration) winds. Gusts to tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) in periodic squalls will begin early this afternoon over east coast locations and over interior and western sections of South Florida starting mid-afternoon. These GUSTS are for short-duration winds, those not sustained for more than 1 minute.” This is important because some news media outlets use gusts to define the worst weather. Yet, “hurricane force wind gusts” do not mean that hurricane conditions occurred!

Period of sustained tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) for far south Florida locations (not including the Keys):

Palm Beach County: 3:00 p.m. Today – 8:00 a.m. Friday

Broward County: 3 PM Today – 3 AM Friday

Miami-Dade County: 3:00 p.m. Today – 1:00 a.m. Friday (most likely north and east/coastal sections)

Hendry/Glades/Interior Collier County/Lake Okeechobee: 8:00 p.m. Today – 8:00 a.m. Friday, ending earlier in Collier County

Coastal Collier County: no hurricane force winds are forecast. If storm tracks more to the west, timing of onset of hurricane force winds would be between 8:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. tonight, lasting through 5:00 a.m. Friday.

Period of sustained hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater):

Palm Beach County: 9:00 p.m. Tonight – 6:00 a.m. Friday

Broward County: none forecast, but potential from 9:00 p.m. Tonight – 3:00 a.m. Friday, if Matthew’s track shifts to the west.

Originally posted 10/6/16

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