THEWEATHERMOGIL:: “Lake Effect” snow machine kicking in to start 2016
With water temperatures in the mid-40’s across parts of Lake Ontario (Fig. 2) and air temperatures expected to be some 10 to 15 degrees colder, instability will be quite high. Atmospheric instability favors upward air motion and upward air motion often begets thunderstorms. Thundersnows are now in the forecast for the Tug Hill Plateau area. Snowfall rates of three to five inches per hour are not uncommon in thundersnow events.
Strong and persistent westerly winds, gusting to 35 miles an hour, are also on tap (Fig 3). This will lead to blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibilities on all roadways in the area (including parts of I-81).
As is always the case with lake effect snows, conditions will be very changeable over short distances. This is due to formation, location and movement of localized snow bands. Apparently good weather can be replaced by near zero visibility in moments. Drivers are urged to be especially cautious during this lake effect snow event.
© 2016 H. Michael Mogil
Originally published 01/01/16