THEWEATHERMOGIL:: More heavy rain on tap for southwest Florida
A quasi-stationary front to the north of Naples, FL will be hanging around Florida at least until Thursday evening (Jan. 28, 2016). To the north and south of this frontal boundary, periods of rain, locally heavy, can be expected. Since individual showers and thunderstorms will be moving over the same areas (an event known as “training”), rainfall totals for the upcoming 36 to 42 hours will be in the two to five inch range. This would be atop the nearly two inches that fell across Collier and Lee Counties overnight. Localized, mainly urban, flooding and ponding could occur.
Extensive cloud cover and reduced daytime solar heating should keep the risk of severe weather low. However, a strong upper level jet stream across the “Sunshine” State, linked to El Nino, could allow some storms to intensify to near or above severe levels.
It is easy to see the extensive amount of mid- and upper-level moisture to the southwest and west of the Florida peninsula on this water vapor satellite image (Fig. 1).
Once the front clears the area (and the upper level jet stream moves to the east), skies will clear and temperatures will drop back below seasonal levels…for at least a day or two.
© 2016 H. Michael Mogil
Originally posted 1/27/16
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